Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 1.892244 1.996515 2.105599 2.228605 2.363910 2.508731 2.676153
2025-07-06 1.707955 1.848486 2.001935 2.183206 2.393187 2.630908 2.923513
2025-07-13 1.626936 1.793166 1.980415 2.209468 2.485669 2.812826 3.237351
2025-07-20 1.570858 1.756888 1.971812 2.242474 2.580260 2.996675 3.563846
2025-07-27 1.527166 1.729472 1.968349 2.276960 2.674209 3.182380 3.907432
2025-08-03 1.468021 1.678496 1.931246 2.264415 2.704067 3.283867 4.144407
2025-08-10 1.415735 1.632220 1.896044 2.250063 2.727802 3.375726 4.373942
2025-08-17 1.365561 1.585567 1.857090 2.227121 2.736418 3.444739 4.574210
2025-08-24 1.320078 1.542424 1.819945 2.203463 2.740929 3.506123 4.766946
2025-08-31 1.289045 1.516049 1.802743 2.204821 2.779285 3.618272 5.052246
2025-09-07 1.264831 1.497172 1.794044 2.216574 2.832187 3.755235 5.395322
2025-09-14 1.226411 1.458204 1.756795 2.186209 2.820646 3.790230 5.563376
2025-09-21 1.188029 1.418547 1.717793 2.152435 2.803291 3.816658 5.723871
2025-09-28 1.148610 1.376298 1.673775 2.109455 2.769331 3.813254 5.827849
2025-10-05 1.135822 1.368979 1.676901 2.134265 2.840597 3.989379 6.307473
2025-10-12 1.126055 1.365186 1.684432 2.165432 2.923289 4.192205 6.879627
2025-10-19 1.117295 1.362302 1.692866 2.197980 3.009931 4.410346 7.531906
2025-10-26 1.094859 1.339888 1.672767 2.186143 3.022433 4.494053 7.893410
2025-11-02 1.073103 1.317758 1.652255 2.172597 3.030928 4.570525 8.253160
2025-11-09 1.049978 1.293083 1.627260 2.150937 3.024108 4.616588 8.545681
2025-11-16 1.027756 1.269097 1.602515 2.128593 3.014671 4.656419 8.830797
2025-11-23 1.013526 1.255941 1.593071 2.129875 3.046362 4.781310 9.381656
2025-11-30 1.002771 1.247361 1.589974 2.140976 3.095898 4.947691 10.102309